Lotería y elecciones: se non è vero...

Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces. The evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent, or with a stronger preference for the status quo.

es el resumen (que paso de traducir) de un artículo en el que sus autores alegan haber encontrado un vínculo consistente (no hablan ni de correlación ni de causalidad: ¡es una tercera vía!) entre la reelección de los políticos y el que en sus provincias encomendadas hayan caído premios de la lotería de navidad.

Pues eso, si non è vero, al menos, è bien trovato.