Paper Audit
Corpus › Sequera et al. (2022)

The impact of COVID-19 on the short-term rental market in Spain: Towards flexibilization?

Jorge Sequera, Jordi Nofre, Ibán Díaz-Parra, Javier Gil, Ismael Yrigoy, Jose Mansilla, Sheila Sánchez · 2022 · Cities · 130 (2022) 103912· doi:10.1016/j.cities.2022.103912

research note · language: en · peer reviewed: yes · Urban tourism studies · approach: theoretical · source: pdf/sequera_2022_covid_str_spain.pdf

COVID-19short-term rentalscrisisflexibilizationurban tourismSpainplatforms

Analysis mode
document only
Verdict
weakly supported
Rubric score
2.0/5
Claim support index ?
36/100
core claims (thesis/main/conclusion): 29

A short exploratory essay arguing that during COVID-19 Spanish STR suppliers did not exit but temporarily switched listings to seasonal/residential portals, and that the crisis strengthened professional managers and platforms as infrastructures for flexible switching between housing markets.

Thesis (C1) COVID-19 did not dismantle the STR model: suppliers temporarily switched dwellings to seasonal/residential portals and the crisis strengthened platforms as infrastructures for flexible switching between markets (flexibilization, hyper-commodification). partial

An early, agenda-setting interpretation of the pandemic's effect on Spanish STRs that anticipated later findings in the corpus (mid-term rentals, seasonal contracts). Within the paper, however, the empirical base is two undocumented sets of Madrid counts; claims about professionalisation, contract practices and new demand are asserted without data.

Claims (8)
12311
Issues (3)
21
Numeric checks (3)
111
conceptualclarity (3)logicalcoherence (3)evidentialsupport (1)methodologicalrigor (1)transparency(2)proportionality(2)

Summary

After outlining Spain's tourism dependence and a decade of touristification, the authors (members of the LIKEALOCAL project) note that Airbnb bookings collapsed in 2020 and many tourist flats appeared on residential portals: in central Madrid 1,796 listings were recorded, 73.61% estimated to be former tourist apartments; long-term listings in the Central District went from 1,300 (2019) to 4,000 (May 2020) and 4,600 (May 2021), then back to 1,900 (Sept 2021). They argue this was not a return to residential use but a temporary switch via 'seasonal' contracts that border on illegality, that professional managers were strengthened while small ones were expelled, and that platforms consolidated as infrastructures enabling hyper-commodification by blurring tourist and residential markets and by creating new demand (digital nomads, students, expats). They close with a research agenda on tourism-dependent economies.

Research questions

  1. How did COVID-19 shift STR supply and the type of demand in Spain?
  2. What changes might the pandemic bring to the interplay between the 'classical' real estate market and STRs?

Stated contribution

Theoretical reflections grounded in the LIKEALOCAL project's empirical work, proposing flexibilization/hybridisation of housing markets via platforms as the key pandemic legacy.

How the argument is built

Tourism dependence → prior touristification research (project members' studies) → STR model and rent gap → pandemic switch of listings to residential portals → interpretation: temporary, seasonal contracts, professionalisation, infrastructures of flexibility → platforms as market creators → research agenda.

Argument map

Claims (boxes) coloured by how well the paper supports them; concepts as ellipses. Arrows point from premise to what it supports. Thick black border = thesis; blue border = conclusion/recommendation. Click a node to jump to it. Layout engine: graphviz.

strongadequatepartialweakunsupportednot applicable supports / generalizesexplains / enables / illustratesdefines / motivates / qualifies line width = strength
Relations as a table (9)
FromTypeToStrengthNote
K1definesC1
K3definesC6
C7motivatesC1moderate
C2supportsC3moderate
C3supportsC1moderate
C4supportsC1moderate
C5supportsC1weak
C6supportsC1weak
C1motivatesC8weak

Claims (8)

Filter:
C1 partial thesisinterpretive non trivialpp. 3-4

COVID-19 did not dismantle the STR model: suppliers temporarily switched dwellings to seasonal/residential portals and the crisis strengthened platforms as infrastructures for flexible switching between markets (flexibilization, hyper-commodification).

Assessment: The temporary surge and fall of Central District listings (1,300 → 4,600 → 1,900) is consistent with a temporary switch. The broader interpretation about infrastructures and hyper-commodification is theoretically reasonable but rests on a handful of counts and anecdotes.

C2 weak mainempirical descriptive non trivialp. 3

A significant number of homes previously on Airbnb were advertised on the residential market: 73.61% of 1,796 central Madrid listings were former tourist apartments.

Assessment: No description of how listings were matched to former tourist use, when, or over what area; the 73.61% precision implies a count (~1,322) but method is unknown.

C3 partial mainempirical descriptive non trivialp. 3

The switch was temporary: long-term listings in the Central District rose from 1,300 to 4,600 and fell back to ~1,900 by September 2021 as tourism recovered.

Assessment: Four data points from Idealista support the rise-and-fall pattern; no series, seasonality control, or link between the specific units and their later use.

C4 weak mainempirical descriptive non trivialpp. 3-4

Managers used 'seasonal' / month-to-month contracts to avoid 5-7 year residential leases, a practice bordering on illegality.

Assessment: Plausible and later documented in the corpus (Gil et al. 2026 on mid-term rentals), but no data on contract types are presented here; supported only by reference to social organisations' denunciations.

C5 unsupported mainempirical causal non trivialp. 3

The pandemic strengthened professional managers while expelling smaller ones unable to withstand liquidity problems, leaving greater professionalisation.

Assessment: No data on host composition before/after the pandemic are presented.

C6 weak mainempirical causal non trivialpp. 2, 4

STR continuity was possible because demand shifted to 'urban roamers' (international students, digital nomads, expats), and platforms actively created this demand — 'as the article has shown'.

Assessment: The article presents no demand-side data; the only evidence is an Airbnb marketing campaign. The later corpus paper on mid-term rentals finds transnational demand not significant as a driver, which tempers this claim.

C8 not applicable conclusionpredictive contestedpp. 4-5

Tourism-dependent territories will bear disproportionate post-pandemic costs (deficits, wage pressure, devalued tourism infrastructure).

Assessment: Research-agenda speculation.

C7 adequate backgroundbackground common knowledgep. 3

Converting dwellings to tourist use is driven by higher rents and leads to evictions, reduced rental supply and rising rents (background from prior research).

Assessment: Summarises established literature; not tested here.

Evidence & data

Design

Theoretical. Exploratory position paper drawing on the authors' prior studies plus a few descriptive figures from Madrid fieldwork and Idealista.

Scope: Spain (Madrid for data), 2020-2022.

Methods

  • Narrative synthesis of prior studies
  • Descriptive counts

Transparency notes

No methods section for the new data: how listings were identified as former tourist apartments, dates of fieldwork, or how the Idealista counts were obtained is not stated. Several claims ('small managers expelled', 'greater professionalisation', demand shift) have no data in the paper.

Limitations acknowledged by the authors

  • Exploratory paper; reconfigurations may be temporary or permanent; longitudinal tracking needed.

Data sources

IDSourceTypeDescriptionCoverageLoc.
D1LIKEALOCAL project fieldwork (Madrid)other1,796 listings in central Madrid; 73.61% estimated as former tourist apartments (method not described).p. 3
D2Idealista long-term listings, Madrid Central Districtscraped platform dataCounts at four dates (2019, May 2020, May 2021, Sept 2021).p. 3, fn. 4
D3Secondary sourcessecondary literatureWTTC, Statista forecasts, press (El País), project members' publications.pp. 1-3

Evidence items (5)

IDKindDescriptionLoc.SourceUsed by
E1statistic Madrid centre: 1,796 listings recorded during fieldwork, 73.61% estimated to have been tourist apartments. p. 3D1 C1C2
E2statistic Long-term listings in Madrid's Central District: 1,300 (2019) → 4,000 (May 2020) → 4,600 (May 2021) → 1,900 (Sept 2021), stable since. p. 3D2 C1C3
E3documentary Airbnb booking collapse (Plaza & Ordaz 2020); Airbnb campaign for longer stays ('change your place for your change of pace'); host quote about moving 15 apartments to the traditional market. pp. 1, 3-4D3 C1C6
E4literature Project members' prior studies on touristification, professionalisation (Gil & Sequera 2020), rent gaps and displacement in Seville, Cádiz, Madrid, Barcelona, Palma. p. 2D3 C7
E5statistic Context: tourism 14.3% of GDP, 2.87M jobs (WTTC 2019); sector wages 17% below national average; 60% part-time; GDP forecast −12.4% (2020-21). pp. 1-2D3 C8

Concepts & definitions

IDTermDefinitionOriginAnalyst note
K1Flexibilization / hybridisation of housing markets
pp. 3-4
Platform and management infrastructures that allow dwellings to switch between tourist, seasonal and residential uses according to rent opportunities.coined
K2Hyper-commodification of housing
p. 4
Intensified commodification enabled by multiple market options.borrowed
Madden & Marcuse (2016)
K3Urban roamers
pp. 2, 4
Populations neither tourists nor locals (digital nomads, students, expats) who used STR supply during restrictions.coined

Issues (3)

I1 major transparency New data lack any method descriptionp. 3

The 1,796 listings / 73.61% estimate and the Idealista counts are presented without explaining identification of former tourist units, dates, geography or extraction method.

Impact on conclusions: The only empirical anchors of the paper cannot be assessed.

I2 major overgeneralization Key claims without evidence in the paperpp. 3-4

Professionalisation (small managers expelled), contract practices, and demand shift to urban roamers are stated as findings ('as the article has shown') but no supporting data are shown.

Impact on conclusions: These are hypotheses for future research rather than results.

I3 minor internal inconsistency Abstract promises demand analysisp. 1

The abstract says the paper examines shifts in 'the type of demand', but no demand data are analysed; the abstract's claim that hedge funds favoured touristification is also not developed.

Impact on conclusions: Editorial.

Numeric verification checks (3)

Scope internal = numbers printed in the document; cross paper = other corpus documents; external / replication = outside sources or re-analysis of original data (web mode only).

IDStatusScopeWhat was checkedComputationResultLoc.Claims
V1not checkableinternalImplied count of former tourist apartments.1,796 x 0.7361≈ 1,322 listings; consistent figure but derivation not documented.p. 3C2
V2passinternalListing series internal logic.1,300 → 4,000 (+208%) → 4,600 (+15%) → 1,900 (−59%)Pattern consistent with a temporary switch; September 2021 level still 46% above 2019.p. 3C3
V3minor discrepancycross paperCross-corpus consistency on pandemic switching.Compare with gil_2024_assetization_valencia ('STRs did not return to the residential market') and gil_vidal_2026_midterm_rental ('temporarily redirected to residential or mid-term segments')This paper documents a temporary rise of STR units on residential portals, mostly under seasonal contracts — reconcilable with both, but the 2023 paper's (gil_2024_assetization_valencia) unqualified statement understates the temporary switch.p. 3C1

Overall assessment

Evaluation frame: A short exploratory/perspective article in an urban studies journal. Appropriate standard: plausibility and originality of the interpretive argument and honesty about its evidential status; new empirical claims should still be sourced and described.

DimensionScoreRationale
conceptual clarity3'Flexibilization' is suggestive but loosely defined.
logical coherence3Argument flows, though it moves from a few counts to sweeping claims about platform capitalism.
evidential support1Two undocumented figures; most claims unsupported within the paper.
methodological rigor1No method for the new data.
transparency2Sources for context cited; own data undocumented.
proportionality2'As the article has shown' for claims it does not show.

Strengths

  • Timely hypothesis of temporary switching via seasonal contracts, later corroborated elsewhere in the corpus.
  • Useful rise-and-fall listing series for central Madrid.
  • Clear research agenda.

Weaknesses

  • No methods for new data.
  • Central claims unsupported within the paper.
  • Abstract overpromises.

Robust claims

C7

Fragile claims

C2C5C6

What would strengthen the work

  • Describe data collection and matching of former tourist units.
  • Provide host-level panel data to support professionalisation claims.
  • Include demand-side indicators (search origin, contract lengths).

Links to the rest of the corpus

X1 contradiction moderate Did pandemic STRs return to the residential market?

Gil (2023) states that during the pandemic 'STRs did not return to the residential market (Gil et al., 2023)' and uses this to argue for housing-policy (not tourism-policy) responses. Gil, Vidal & Yrigoy (2026) cite the same source for STR units being 'temporarily redirected to residential or mid-term segments'. Sequera et al. (2022) document central Madrid long-term listings rising from 1,300 to 4,600 and back to 1,900, and Gil (2021) reported hosts 'directly ending the business and renting in the residential market'. The evidence supports a temporary switch, largely under seasonal contracts; the 2023 paper's unqualified statement understates it.

Implication: The policy argument in Gil (2023) should be qualified: switching occurred but was temporary and often outside long-term residential contracts.

X12 corroboration positive Later data temper earlier demand-side claim

Sequera et al. (2022) asserted that STR continuity rested on a demand shift to digital nomads, students and expats. Gil, Vidal & Yrigoy (2026), with Idealista search data, find foreign demand is not a significant driver in multivariate models (an 'enabler'), while confirming the seasonal-contract mechanism.

Implication: Shows the programme updating claims with better data.

Provenance

Analyst: Claude (Anthropic), LLM-generated audit · 2026-11-08 · access: document only · text: text/sequera_2022_covid_str_spain.txt · schema v1.1

No external sources were consulted (offline run). Figures are assumed to be correctly reported; claims[].external, citation checks and external/replication checks were not performed.

Two-column layout; classified as research_note given its length (6 pp.) and exploratory framing.